Thursday, February 3, 2011

UFC 126 Silva vs. Belfort

Well another UFC event is coming up this weekend and I'll be discussing my picks to win. 

Weigh ins Friday 2/4/11

It's Anderson Silva versus Vitor Belfort. I believe Anderson will take it TKO round 3. I'm about 70/30 sure about it. Anderson is somewhat of a slow starter and if Vitor doesn't spend any time doing a feel out process and be guns blazing like Vitor of old then we might see magic happen. The fight may play out that way depending on which Vitor we see. Vitor has worked with a top striking coach in Shawn Tompkins but not for this fight so I'm not sure if there is any drama prior to fighting. Vitor has had a pretty long lay off, 17 months to be exact as well as shoulder surgery. Also Vitor hasn't fought at 185 in a while and when he did fight Rich 17 months ago, that was at a catch weight higher than 185. So weight cut might be an obstacle for Vitor who I think is normally at 220 lbs. Another thing to add to that is that Vitor hasn't fought the championship rounds and Anderson has so Vitor's gas tank is in question.

It seems the formula to beat Anderson is a good wrestler who can take him down and GnP him and not get caught with a submisison or the only striker who can beat Anderson by KO or TKO would be Vitor within the first 3 rounds(definitely has the punching power to do so) but with all the negatives I mentioned earlier, it's a very tall order. Vitor seems hungry and is capable but it seems that Anderson is in his prime and is very mentally prepared. If Vitor does win, my hats off to him. I'm a fan of both. For sure it will be (in a Michael Schiavello voice) "Good Night Irene" but for who.

This fight I didn't really want to see. I like both Rich and Forrest. Rich did well against Chuck not that long ago and has momentum on his side. Rich also seems to do very well off of his back (his armbar escape against lutter comes to mind). Rich does have power in his hands and you can ask many fighters like Chuck or Nate Quarry. 

Forrest is a big dude. He cuts an extreme amount of weight to make 205 and looks as if that does not slow him down one bit. Unfortunately he doesn't possess the power but seems very hungry for a win. The only thing is that Forrest had a long lay off, just over a year and I think he had surgery also. I watched an interview with Forrest and it seems like broke down his game and tried to fix the weaknesses he had from the ground up. This could be good or be bad since introducing an overhauled game/style with a tough opponent like Rich may be too soon. 

I'm about 65/35 for Rich but if Forrest comes with a good game plan he can earn that victory via split decision. Forrest mentioned that he can muscle Rich which is true but he's going to try doing it in the clinch ala Anderson Silva style. But I think Rich will be to fast for Forrest so I don't think much clinch work will be done. I think Forrest can take Rich down but I trust Rich's ground game vs Forest top game on the ground. So I don't think Forrest can keep him on the ground but we'll see. Both have great gas tanks and if it were a 5 round war then Forrest's size advantage can gas out Rich but I do favor Rich in 3 with all three judges saying 29-28 unanimous decision.

Now moving on to Bones Jones and Bader. I really don't find Bones' personality appealing. He's very well spoken but does carry an arrogance around him. He's a big up and comer and may be future champion. I kind of want to see him get "humbled" in the octagon. If he does, it might even make him better because at least he knows where the chink in his armor would be. 

Bader has improved leaps and bounds also. From a pure wrestler to greatly improved stand up, he's an up and comer as well. He looks really comfortable with his hands now and has excellent take downs.  He's also very heavy handed and has a good work ethic. 

I'm going to pick Bones in a unanimous decision. I believe he has enough to beat Bader but not enough skills yet to finish a guy like Bader within 3 rounds. Jones' long reach and speed will be key in this fight, not his flash (even though I've heard he said he's going to be extra flashy for this fight). If he does come out extra flashy, I expect him to get taken down and we get to finally see how he reacts on his back for the first time. If he looks like a fish out of water on his back, then the hype train would finally be derailed. I pick Bones 60/40 but I would not be surprised if Bader won by split decision by take downs and top position. 

Real quick. Kid Yamamoto is finally debuting in the UFC. It's about time but now I'm not as excited for it. He's fighting a great wrestler in Demetrious Johnson. I don't know too much about the guy but I think I saw him do well in the WEC and Kid is passed his prime so I'll go with Johnson just based on that. 

lol i hope i predicted correctly. comments are very much welcomed!

Cool interview with Bas. I like what he says about Brock lol.

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